affert's assorted observations

i'm affert. this is my blog.

Tuesday, September 30, 2008

What's the world coming to?

The title is a genuine question.

The video series "Crash Course" by Chris Martenson (www.chrismartenson.com) got me thinking a lot about the future. There are a lot of things in this world that have the potential to radically restructure how life works, seemingly in a short amount of time.

"How it all ends" is another, very well thought out, very well researched video series about Global Climate Destabilization. (http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=mF_anaVcCXg is the initial video in the series). I'm about half way through the series.

Beyond his main point (that Global Climate Destabilization is worthy of very intense attention and action), he makes many good points about how we can know things. Throughout his videos, he challenges his viewers to not take his word for it, to go look it up and think for yourself. Critiquing the credibility of sources is very important in his mind.

And there's the rub.

When it comes to science, we do have generally accepted sources that exist without large amounts to gain through deceiving us. (If you want to discuss with me about "scientists are biased because they want grant money" leave a comment: I'm not trying to avoid that issue, I'm just trying to make another point right now). The debate is either about "what is going on in the real, very complex real world." or "should we act given that we can only be 100% certain of GCD in the rear-view mirror?" In either case, the choices for action are pretty apparent (emit far less or zero CO2 vs keep doing what we're doing now).

When it comes to a topic like Peak Oil, everyone (at least that I've ever seen) agrees what is going on (that oil will peak, then decrease in available supply). The disagreement is about what the implications are, how fast it will happen, and what should we be doing about it. And in this case, we don't have any ice cores to look at to see what happens last time the planet ran out of oil.

And almost everybody in the conversation has vested interest in their idea being right.

So I ask the question: where is credible discussion about what the effect of PO will be?

Also, the bail out package that was recently voted down, probably to be voted on again soon. In this topic, it is even worse: the most powerful people in the country also happen to be the richest. Which mean they have the most to gain (for them and their buddies) if $700 billion are spent helping the rich.

Credibility is further damaged by so many refrains of "the economy is fine" jumping right to "if you don't pass this right now, the whole economy will disappear!"

All of these topic (economy, PO, GCD) are topics where there is no realistic option to decide later. When the choice is "what should we do now" "nothing" is a choice in and of itself, with real rewards and consequences.

One other video to throw into the mix
(http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=F-QA2rkpBSY&feature=PlayList&p=6A1FD147A45EF50D&index=0) is a general look at exponential functions and how they play out in the real world.


Anyway, please comment with your thoughts (preferably backed up by sources).